Vietnam’s Export Structure to the United States: Navigating Tariff Pressures and Shaping Long-Term Strategy

The looming risk of increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. is creating significant pressure on Vietnam’s export activities. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises which account for a dominant share of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. may consider shifting product categories, target markets, or even reallocating investment capital. Meanwhile, domestic enterprises, particularly in sectors such as textiles and seafood, are likely to face substantial strain and require timely support to maintain production and safeguard social welfare. 

This report by FiinGroup offers in-depth insights into the structure of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S., the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on export-oriented enterprises, and identifies industries that warrant prioritized attention and support during this period. 

Key highlights from the report include: 

• Although Vietnam was among the countries with the highest trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, domestic Vietnamese companies contributed only 21.6% of total export value to the U.S. market. 

• FDI enterprises from China, South Korea, and Taiwan currently dominate Vietnam’s exports to the U.S., accounting for over 50% of the total export value. 

• Domestic enterprises hold a dominant share only in the seafood sector. In most other industries, especially those requiring substantial technology and production capabilities, such as machinery and electronics, FDI enterprises contribute more than 50% of export value to the U.S. 

• Vietnamese domestic exporters to the U.S. are highly labor- and credit-intensive. Therefore, tariff policy changes could pose significant financial risks and threaten their ability to sustain operations, necessitating close monitoring. 

To support exporters in proactively adapting to tariff fluctuations and fostering long-term export growth, the report recommends several actions: 

• The Government should consider accelerating credit support programs, trade promotion initiatives, and social security policies for sectors expected to be heavily impacted with a particular focus on supporting domestic enterprises. 

• FDI enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with Vietnamese businesses in negotiations, sharing challenges, maintaining production, and safeguarding supply chain continuity. 

• Financial institutions should adjust their credit policies, closely monitor sector-specific risks, and apply advanced data analytics to respond swiftly to market changes. 

In the long term, Vietnam must focus on developing domestic production capacity, aiming for local enterprises to play a leading role in export activities. This includes expanding into high-tech industries and fully leveraging Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to enhance international competitiveness. 

👉 Download the full report HERE